Issued at: 1:00 p.m. Friday November 17, 2017
Issued by: MVCA Flood Forecast Centre
To: All Municipalities in the Maitland and Nine Mile River Watersheds Watershed Media
Watershed Conditions Statement - Water Safety Saturated Soils Expected to Result in Quick Runoff
Weather forecasts for the Maitland and Nine Mile Watersheds are indicating that 15 mm to 30 mm of rain is expected to fall tonight and into Saturday morning. Rivers in the area are currently running at seasonally high levels and soils are saturated from rainfall earlier this week. The rain forecast for this evening will result in a quick runoff and rise in watercourse levels.
Bankfull conditions are expected and flooding may occur in low-lying areas. Municipal officials should monitor flood-prone roads.
We remind watershed residents that fast flows and cold water temperatures will create hazardous conditions around all watercourses.
Along the Lake Huron shoreline saturated conditions has softened the clay till bluffs making them more unstable. This can lead to slope failures along the shoreline and increased gully erosion.
Strong northwest winds are expected on Monday and Tuesday. These winds combined with above normal long-term-average water levels on Lake Huron, will result in high waves hitting shoreline areas. The increased wave height may result in minor flooding of low-lying coastal areas as well as increased risk of erosion to lakeshore bluffs.
Municipal officials and residents are reminded to stay well back from breaking waves, and to approach top of bluff areas with caution during and immediately after the storm in case there has been any movement of the lake bank.
This message will remain in effect until 9:00 a.m. on Wednesday November 22, 2017, unless local conditions warrant further updates. Maitland Conservation will continue to monitor shoreline conditions and will provide an update if required.
Contact: Stephen Jackson, Flood and Erosion Safety Services Coordinator